Pre Flop Hand Poker Odds Betting before the flop can sometimes be a blind bet, because when the flop comes things can change drastically. What can seem like a clear advantage can turn into a trap when the Turn or River or Flop cards hit the poker. There are three concepts that guide pre-flop play: Equity, implied odds and position. Equity can be seen as how much of the pot your hand is worth (i.e. The better your hand, the bigger your equity). Pre-Flop Poker Probability - Probability Of Hands Pre-Flop Chart. The reference table below gives probabilities of being dealt specific hands pre-flop: The next article in this series will look at the. However, knowing the odds of common pre-flop match-ups is a good starting point. Pick out and study what will help you. While it's not essential that these statistics be committed to memory, it won't hurt.
In addition to the odds of winning a hand by pairing cards on the board, suited cards will flop a 4 flush 10.9% of the time (you will complete the flush 35.0% of those times). They will flop a flush outright.
In this lesson we're going to run through a number of heads-up match-ups that will help give you an idea of where you stand in a variety of pre-flop situations when playing hold'em. Be aware that we're only going to focus on individual hand match-ups. When playing hold'em it's essential that you put your opponent on a range of hands, rather than specific holdings. However, knowing the odds of common pre-flop match-ups is a good starting point. Pick out and study what will help you. While it's not essential that these statistics be committed to memory, it won't hurt you if you do.
Let's start by looking at hand match-ups when holding a pair:
Pair vs. Pair
The higher pair is an 80 percent favourite. We can get very technical and highlight the fact that if the underpair didn't have any clean suits and/or the maximum number of straight outs then the high pair's equity would increases by one or two percent.
Pair vs. Overcards
This is the classic coin flip hand that you'll see many times late in tournaments with one player being all-in. The term coin flip indicates an even money situation which is really a 55 to 45 percent situation, as the pair is a slight favourite.
Pair vs. Undercards
In this situation the pair is normally about a 5-to-1 favourite and can vary depending on whether the two undercards are suited and/or connectors.
Pair vs. Overcard and an undercard
The pair is about a 70 percent favourite. Another example of this holding would be J-J against A-9. The underdog non-paired hand has three outs while the favourite has redraws.
Pair vs. Overcard and one of that pair
The classic example of this situation is the confrontation between a pair of cowboys and big slick. The A-K has three outs and it becomes a 70-30 percent situation or a 2.3-to-1 dog for the cowboys. This is a far cry from the next situation where even though one of the pair is matched the other card is lower.
Pair vs. Undercard and one of that pair
The non pair has to hit its undercard twice or make a straight or flush to prevail. The pair is better than a 90 percent favourite or slightly better than 10-to-1 odds. I'll take those odds anytime.
Pair vs. Lower suited connectors
You see this match-up late in tournaments when a player is getting desperate and pushes all-in with middle suited connectors. A hand such as Q-Q against 7-6 suited would be a prime example. The pair is a strong favourite to win.
Pair vs. Higher suited connectors
Poker Preflop Odds
Here is the real coin flip situation. A pair of eights heads-up against a suited Q-J is a fifty-fifty proposition. The higher suited cards would have an edge against a lower pair, such as 2's or 3's, since the board itself can sometimes destroy little pairs.
Common Pre-Flop Match-Ups (Non Pairs)
The following heads-up confrontations contain no pairs.
Two high cards vs. Two undercards
The two higher cards are usually a 65% favourite to win, but it can vary depending on whether any of the cards are suited and/or connectors.
High card, low card vs. Two middle cards
In this match-up the high card gives it the edge. But it's only a marginal winner, approximately 57% to the hand containing the high card.
High card, middle card vs. Second highest, low card
The edge is increased by around 5% when the low card becomes the third highest card, as shown in this example, which gives approx 62% to 38% for high card/middle card combination.
High card, same card vs. Same card, low card
In this example the A-J is in a very strong position. If we discount any flush or straight possibilities, it only leaves the player holding J-8 with three outs (the three remaining 8's).
Same high card, high kicker vs. Same card, low kicker
The high kicker gives this hand a fairly big edge. It's very common for A-K run into A-Q, A-J, and lower, and it's why Ace-King is such a powerful hand, particularly at the business end of no-limit hold'em tournaments when people move all-in with any sort of Ace.
Statistical Variations
For any math maniacs reading this who do not find these odds precise enough, I acknowledge that the math is rounded and for the most part does not take into account the possibilities of ties and back door straights and flushes. What players need to be equipped with is the general statistical match-up – not the fact that in the example of a pair of eights against a suited Q-J the percents are exactly 50.61 for the eights to 48.99 for the suited connectors with the balance going to potential ties. I call that a fifty-fifty proposition.
Of greater importance than quibbling over tenths of a percent is the fact that in most heads-up confrontations you can never be a prohibitive underdog. That is one reason why poker is so challenging and fun. Of course, while true, I'm not attempting to embolden the reader to ignore the odds and become a maniac. Math is the underpinning of poker and if you regularly get your money into the middle with the worst of it you will go broke.
One statistic that hasn't been mentioned, and it's one that I particularly like is this – the odds of both players being dealt Aces when playing heads up (one on one) is 270,724-to-1. It's my favourite statistic because it provides me with almost total confidence when I'm playing heads up and receive pocket Aces that I'm the boss! That confident feeling lasts right up to the river when my Aces get cracked by some rotten piece of cheese which my opponent elected to play. As mentioned already, rarely are you a prohibitive underdog – so remember that to keep those losing hands in perspective.
Related Lessons
By Tom 'TIME' Leonard
Tom has been writing about poker since 1994 and has played across the USA for over 40 years, playing every game in almost every card room in Atlantic City, California and Las Vegas.
While technology may have come a long way, learning by using pen and paper never goes out of style. It may not be everyone's cup of tea but, personally, I find this approach very effective as I tend to better be able to commit things to memory when doing things this way.
Texas Holdem Poker Hands Odds
For a poker player, learning and understanding math behind the game is essential. Pretty much without exception, you can't be good at poker if you don't understand poker math, plain and simple.
There are many ways to go about learning these numbers but if the aforementioned approach appeals to you, then you're going to love the Poker Workbook by James 'SplitSuit' Sweeney. It is an extensive source of knowledge on poker math and percentages that requires your active involvement. It may feel like you're back in school at times, but if you do it right you're bound to learn a lot from these materials.
Poker Workbook in a Nutshell
So, what exactly is the Poker Workbook? It is a poker textbook containing more than 1,500 tasks involving poker math – from the simplest calculations to highly elaborate concepts. Every single aspect of the workbook is briefly explained and then followed by a number of calculations you'll need to do on your own.
Concepts covered in the Poker Workbook include:
- Equity & EV
- Ranges & range building
- Pot odds & Implied Odds
- Open raising
- 3-bets & 4-bets
- Preflop all-ins
- Blockers
- … and more
Once you get the basic grasp of the concept that's being discussed, you'll need to apply that knowledge to real examples and come up with exact answers. You'll need to calculate percentages, number of combos, pot odds, and more, and then fill in the answers. So, it's not the kind of book that you can just read. It only works if you actually take time to do the exercises!
Train Your Brain to Think Poker
The main goal of the Poker Workbook is to teach you how to quickly make all sorts of calculations while playing. Although our brains aren't computers and most of us can't do complex calculations in seconds, almost everyone can develop a skillset to make very good approximations. More often than not, this is all you will need at the poker tables.
The higher pair is an 80 percent favourite. We can get very technical and highlight the fact that if the underpair didn't have any clean suits and/or the maximum number of straight outs then the high pair's equity would increases by one or two percent.
Pair vs. Overcards
This is the classic coin flip hand that you'll see many times late in tournaments with one player being all-in. The term coin flip indicates an even money situation which is really a 55 to 45 percent situation, as the pair is a slight favourite.
Pair vs. Undercards
In this situation the pair is normally about a 5-to-1 favourite and can vary depending on whether the two undercards are suited and/or connectors.
Pair vs. Overcard and an undercard
The pair is about a 70 percent favourite. Another example of this holding would be J-J against A-9. The underdog non-paired hand has three outs while the favourite has redraws.
Pair vs. Overcard and one of that pair
The classic example of this situation is the confrontation between a pair of cowboys and big slick. The A-K has three outs and it becomes a 70-30 percent situation or a 2.3-to-1 dog for the cowboys. This is a far cry from the next situation where even though one of the pair is matched the other card is lower.
Pair vs. Undercard and one of that pair
The non pair has to hit its undercard twice or make a straight or flush to prevail. The pair is better than a 90 percent favourite or slightly better than 10-to-1 odds. I'll take those odds anytime.
Pair vs. Lower suited connectors
You see this match-up late in tournaments when a player is getting desperate and pushes all-in with middle suited connectors. A hand such as Q-Q against 7-6 suited would be a prime example. The pair is a strong favourite to win.
Pair vs. Higher suited connectors
Poker Preflop Odds
Here is the real coin flip situation. A pair of eights heads-up against a suited Q-J is a fifty-fifty proposition. The higher suited cards would have an edge against a lower pair, such as 2's or 3's, since the board itself can sometimes destroy little pairs.
Common Pre-Flop Match-Ups (Non Pairs)
The following heads-up confrontations contain no pairs.
Two high cards vs. Two undercards
The two higher cards are usually a 65% favourite to win, but it can vary depending on whether any of the cards are suited and/or connectors.
High card, low card vs. Two middle cards
In this match-up the high card gives it the edge. But it's only a marginal winner, approximately 57% to the hand containing the high card.
High card, middle card vs. Second highest, low card
The edge is increased by around 5% when the low card becomes the third highest card, as shown in this example, which gives approx 62% to 38% for high card/middle card combination.
High card, same card vs. Same card, low card
In this example the A-J is in a very strong position. If we discount any flush or straight possibilities, it only leaves the player holding J-8 with three outs (the three remaining 8's).
Same high card, high kicker vs. Same card, low kicker
The high kicker gives this hand a fairly big edge. It's very common for A-K run into A-Q, A-J, and lower, and it's why Ace-King is such a powerful hand, particularly at the business end of no-limit hold'em tournaments when people move all-in with any sort of Ace.
Statistical Variations
For any math maniacs reading this who do not find these odds precise enough, I acknowledge that the math is rounded and for the most part does not take into account the possibilities of ties and back door straights and flushes. What players need to be equipped with is the general statistical match-up – not the fact that in the example of a pair of eights against a suited Q-J the percents are exactly 50.61 for the eights to 48.99 for the suited connectors with the balance going to potential ties. I call that a fifty-fifty proposition.
Of greater importance than quibbling over tenths of a percent is the fact that in most heads-up confrontations you can never be a prohibitive underdog. That is one reason why poker is so challenging and fun. Of course, while true, I'm not attempting to embolden the reader to ignore the odds and become a maniac. Math is the underpinning of poker and if you regularly get your money into the middle with the worst of it you will go broke.
One statistic that hasn't been mentioned, and it's one that I particularly like is this – the odds of both players being dealt Aces when playing heads up (one on one) is 270,724-to-1. It's my favourite statistic because it provides me with almost total confidence when I'm playing heads up and receive pocket Aces that I'm the boss! That confident feeling lasts right up to the river when my Aces get cracked by some rotten piece of cheese which my opponent elected to play. As mentioned already, rarely are you a prohibitive underdog – so remember that to keep those losing hands in perspective.
Related Lessons
By Tom 'TIME' Leonard
Tom has been writing about poker since 1994 and has played across the USA for over 40 years, playing every game in almost every card room in Atlantic City, California and Las Vegas.
While technology may have come a long way, learning by using pen and paper never goes out of style. It may not be everyone's cup of tea but, personally, I find this approach very effective as I tend to better be able to commit things to memory when doing things this way.
Texas Holdem Poker Hands Odds
For a poker player, learning and understanding math behind the game is essential. Pretty much without exception, you can't be good at poker if you don't understand poker math, plain and simple.
There are many ways to go about learning these numbers but if the aforementioned approach appeals to you, then you're going to love the Poker Workbook by James 'SplitSuit' Sweeney. It is an extensive source of knowledge on poker math and percentages that requires your active involvement. It may feel like you're back in school at times, but if you do it right you're bound to learn a lot from these materials.
Poker Workbook in a Nutshell
So, what exactly is the Poker Workbook? It is a poker textbook containing more than 1,500 tasks involving poker math – from the simplest calculations to highly elaborate concepts. Every single aspect of the workbook is briefly explained and then followed by a number of calculations you'll need to do on your own.
Concepts covered in the Poker Workbook include:
- Equity & EV
- Ranges & range building
- Pot odds & Implied Odds
- Open raising
- 3-bets & 4-bets
- Preflop all-ins
- Blockers
- … and more
Once you get the basic grasp of the concept that's being discussed, you'll need to apply that knowledge to real examples and come up with exact answers. You'll need to calculate percentages, number of combos, pot odds, and more, and then fill in the answers. So, it's not the kind of book that you can just read. It only works if you actually take time to do the exercises!
Train Your Brain to Think Poker
The main goal of the Poker Workbook is to teach you how to quickly make all sorts of calculations while playing. Although our brains aren't computers and most of us can't do complex calculations in seconds, almost everyone can develop a skillset to make very good approximations. More often than not, this is all you will need at the poker tables.
To tackle tasks in the workbook, you'll need poker software such as Flopzilla and/or Equilab. These programs will let you build custom ranges and turn percentages into visual representations (and vice-versa) of hand ranges.
As you do this, you should become much better at visualizing what a certain percentage of hands looks like. You should also learn how to quickly figure out if a particular call is +EV or not based on how it relates to the pot and the strength of your own hand.
It all may seem abstract until you actually sit down and start doing it. That's exactly why I like SplitSuit's approach with this product. It forces you to sit down, think about, and physically write down your results. That way, you can't fool yourself into thinking you were 'close enough'. If the number is there and it's off by a lot (or even a little), you'll know you made a mistake in your calculations somewhere.
When you want to check your results, there is the separate Answer Key file, which allows you to quickly find answers for particular questions without having to go back and forth through the original book. This is really helpful as it saves time and lets you focus more on the learning process.
Slow but Efficient
The Poker Workbook was designed to be studied methodically. SplitSuit recommends doing a few pages every day and really focusing on getting the right answers, so this is probably the best way to go about it. If you're already an experienced player, some of the earlier tasks will be easy to complete off the top of your head. If you're new to poker math, though, it will take some time.
The good thing about the workbook is that you can organize your studying time so it doesn't affect your other poker learning activities, such as watching videos or analyzing your hands. You can just do a few exercises whenever you feel like it. As you do more, you're bound to become better at it.
Finally, there's the price point: just $39. That's affordable for pretty much any poker player. Moreover, when you consider it as an 'investment' rather than a 'money spend', it's tough to argue that you aren't getting great bang for your buck.
So, to summarize, it may feel like 'doing things the old fashioned way, with pen and paper' is a step back when compared to all the modern and interactive poker training systems out there but I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing. The more traditional approach to learning poker can still work very well and the fact you're more involved with the materials will help you memorize much more information even if you don't realize it at first.
If you want to learn poker math from scratch or if there are certain concepts that you don't quite understand or struggle with, give Poker Workbook a go. Odds are you're going to love it once you get into it and begin a daily poker study routine.
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